Genealogy with seasonality, the basic reproduction number, and the influenza pandemic
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Basic Reproductive Number for Pandemic Influenza
This paper focuses on a fundamental input parameter for most existing mathematical models of pandemic influenza, the ‘basic reproductive number R0,’ defined to be the mean number of new influenza infections created by a newly infected person in a population of all susceptible people. We argue that R0 is limited in policy and scientific value as is any single parameter attempting to characterize...
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Influenza pandemics can emerge unexpectedly and wreak global devastation. However, each of the six pandemics since 1889 emerged in the Northern Hemisphere just after the flu season, suggesting that pandemic timing may be predictable. Using a stochastic model fit to seasonal flu surveillance data from the United States, we find that seasonal flu leaves a transient wake of heterosubtypic immunity...
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The basic reproduction number, R0 is a measure of the potential for disease spread in a population. Mathematically, R0 is a threshold for stability of a disease-free equilibrium and is related to the peak and final size of an epidemic. The purpose of these notes is to give a precise definition and algorithm for obtaining R0 for a general compartmental ordinary differential equation model of dis...
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Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted from an infected human to an Aedes mosquito, during a blood meal. Dengue is still a major public health problem. A model for the disease transmission is presented, composed by human and mosquitoes compartments. The aim is to simulate the effects of seasonality, on the vectorial capacity and, consequently, on the disease development. Using entomologic...
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abstract while task-based instruction is considered as the most effective way to learn a language in the related literature, it is oversimplified on various grounds. different variables may affect how students are engaged with not only the language but also with the task itself. the present study was conducted to investigate language and task related engagement on the basis of the task typolog...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Mathematical Biology
سال: 2010
ISSN: 0303-6812,1432-1416
DOI: 10.1007/s00285-010-0354-8